Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 18/2110Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 070
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 070/071/071
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10