Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 17/2116Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/0202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0139Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 069
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 069/069/071
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10