Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 15/2018Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1805Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 214 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 070
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  008/008-006/006-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10