Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 371 km/s at 25/2237Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 069
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  005/005-007/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/40