Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 24/1232Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/1105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/2022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 341 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 070
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  003/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20