Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 669 km/s at 10/0540Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1081 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 071
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  005/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/25/20