Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 28/0425Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 28/0017Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Nov, 30 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 068
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  006/005-006/005-019/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/45
Minor Storm           01/01/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/70