Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 25/0719Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/0210Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/1037Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Nov, 27 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (28 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 070
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  007/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15