Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 23/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 24/1124Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 070
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  006/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/20