Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 21/1314Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/0039Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 069
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15