Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 350 km/s at 19/1704Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/2227Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 753 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (22 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 071
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  007/008-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/20