Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 12/2129Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 13/0017Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1803 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 067
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15