Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 12/1929Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1208 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 068
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15