Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 05/0508Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 04/2229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 04/2219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3131 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 068
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  023/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  011/015-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/40/20