Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 368 km/s at 03/0006Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/2333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at03/0019Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (04 Nov, 05 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 067
Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 03 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 015/020-011/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/35/35