Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 330 km/s at 29/2222Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/1813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 30/0055Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 067
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  009/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/15