Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 327 km/s at 19/0053Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1333 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (22 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 070
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  012/015-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/10