Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 18/0023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1363 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (19 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 070
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  014/018-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/25