Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 16/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0712Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/0558Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1463 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Oct, 20 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (19 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 070
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  007/008-014/018-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/30
Minor Storm           10/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/60/40