Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 15/2336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1323 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (19 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 070
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  005/005-007/008-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/35
Minor Storm           01/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/35/55