Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to ere are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 26/2014Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/2204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2765 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 069
Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 26 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
