Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 24/0202Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0425Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7039 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Sep, 26 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (27 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 069
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  009/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/15