Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 27/2114Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/0052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 97630 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Aug, 30 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (31 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 070
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  020/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  008/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/15