Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 May 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 18/0126Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/2324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/0126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 630 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).
III. Event probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 069
Predicted 19 May-21 May 069/069/068
90 Day Mean 18 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10