Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 April 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr, 16 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 12/2314Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/1836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/0028Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25451 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 070
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  008/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/10