Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 April 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 09/1734Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0711Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 301 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (10 Apr, 11 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day three (12 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 069
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  015/018-014/018-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/55/50