Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 April 2018
USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 01/0627Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3767 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 069
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10