Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 01/2142Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (04 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 069
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  006/005-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/20
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/30/25