Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 29/1149Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/1015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 204 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Jan, 31 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (01 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 068
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20