Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 23/2131Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/1637Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 24/1535Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1043 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 070
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 070/068/068
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  008/005-007/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25