Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 22/0042Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0228Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 449 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 070
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10