Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 15/2223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/1525Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/0639Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 071
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  005/005-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25