Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 13/2024Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 13/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 13/1748Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (16 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 071
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  011/015-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    40/20/10