Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 09/2204Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/0057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/0944Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Jan, 12 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 070
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  006/005-005/005-012/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor Storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/45