Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 13/2114Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/0046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/2343Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 248 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Dec, 16 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 072
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  006/005-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/35