Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 12/1545Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2334Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/1650Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 341 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (15 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 071
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  011/012-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    35/15/10