Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 08/2141Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/2211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4184 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 071
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  006/005-012/014-013/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/35/35