Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 06/0323Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/0734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0409Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3260 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (09 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 068
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  021/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    35/20/10