Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (30 Nov) and expected to be very low on days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 28/2338Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/1136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/2034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 211 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 073
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 072/071/069
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  009/010-006/006-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    35/20/15