Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 28/0117Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 28/0057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/0031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 212 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (30 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 072
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 072/071/070
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  018/024-014/016-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/45/25