Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 26/1355Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 428 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Nov, 28 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (29 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Nov 076
Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov 076/076/076
90 Day Mean        26 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  011/015-011/012-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor Storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/35/30
Major-severe storm    50/40/50