Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 24/2333Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 24/2235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 703 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 074
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  006/005-011/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor Storm           01/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/35
Major-severe storm    15/50/40