Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 639 km/s at 21/1436Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 21/0234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 21/0433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 300 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (24 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 073
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 074/073/072
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  023/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  015/018-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/20