Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 20/2048Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/1622Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 20/1621Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3310 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (21 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (22 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 074
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 074/074/073
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  013/018-012/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/35/20