Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 19/0237Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1480 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 074
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  015/018-013/018-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/35