Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 15/1815Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 15/1858Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/1543Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7864 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 074
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  010/012-013/014-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/20