Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (31 May) and expected to be very low on days two and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 820 km/s at 29/2103Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/0235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 315 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (31 May, 01 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 May 074
Predicted   31 May-02 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        30 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  005/005-005/005-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20