Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2017

IA. 
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. 
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with
a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27
May, 28 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 24/2115Z. Total
IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -2 nT at 25/1629Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17618 pfu.

IIB. 
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be
at quiet to active levels on day one (26 May), unsettled to active
levels on day two (27 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(28 May).

III.  Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 076
Predicted   26 May-28 May 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        25 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  010/012-015/020-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20