Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 12/0339Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/1222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/1607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 467 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 May, 14 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 069
Predicted   13 May-15 May 070/072/072
90 Day Mean        12 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  006/005-006/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/10