Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May, 07 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 04/1755Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/2035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 04/1837Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5333 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 May, 07 May).

III.  Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 074
Predicted   05 May-07 May 076/076/076
90 Day Mean        04 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  008/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/10